Virginia's Economic Forecast, May 2026
Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country.
Key Findings
- A major benchmark revision of employment data shows that Virginia experienced a slowdown in 2025
- Virginia is now expected to lose 17,800 jobs in 2026
- Inflation in Virginia remains lower than the national rate, but price pressure has not fully normalized
- Housing activity remains constrained, with rent growth continuing and permits declining
Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood.
Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the forecast to you.