Virginia's Economic Forecast, February 2026
Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country.
Key Findings:
- The slowdown observed in 2025 is projected to deepen in 2026 before recovery in 2027
- Employment stagnated in 2025 and is expected to decline in 2026
- The unemployment rate will rise in 2026 before easing in 2027
- Inflation remains moderate, while the housing market shows mixed signals
Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood.
Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the Forecast to you.