Virginia's Economic Forecast, October 2025
Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country.
Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood.
Key Findings:
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Virginia’s labor market showed some resilience during 2025
- Still, the unemployment rate in Virginia has increased during 2025 and will reach 4.1% by the end of the year and 4.8% in 2026, the highest rate since 2021
- Virginia’s GDP will remain in positive territory
- Inflation in Virginia is below the U.S. average
Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the Forecast to you.