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Virginia's Economic Forecast, August 2025

Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country. 

Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood. 

Key Findings for the Remainder of 2025

  • The economic slowdown will happen later than expected, as Virginia sectors show signs of resilience and many federal measures were postponed or delayed
  • Virginia’s GDP will remain in positive territory, but growth will slow
  • A contraction in Virginia’s labor market is expected later this year, as employment is expected to decline
  • The unemployment rate in Virginia will rise as job losses accumulate
  • Inflation in Virginia is below the U.S. average, as Virginia continues to experience a manageable increase in prices
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Read the Forecast

Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the Forecast to you. 

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Virginia's Economic Forecast

A quarterly economic forecast for the Commonwealth of Virginia, created by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service.