Virginia's Economic Forecast, April 2025
Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country.
Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood.
KEY FINDINGS FOR 2025
- Virginia’s labor market is contracting—employment is expected to decline throughout 2025, bucking the national trend.
The unemployment rate in Virginia will rise as job losses accumulate and will reach its highest rate since 2021.
Image
Total nonfarm employment change: Virginia vs. U.S.
February 2024-February 2025 | month-over-month | % | Source: CES- Bureau of Labor Statistics- Despite the national trend, Virginia continues to experience lower price growth than the U.S. average.
- Despite the labor market strain, Virginia’s GDP will remain in positive territory, driven by productivity gains and sectoral resilience—but growth will slow.
- The economic slowdown is steeper and more persistent in Virginia than anticipated, with signs of continued weakness across multiple sectors.
For more detailed information about the model, see the short appendix at the end of the report.
Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the Forecast to you.