Virginia's Economic Forecast, August 2026
Each quarter, the Cooper Center’s Economic Forecast updates major economic trends and focuses on key indicators such as employment growth, inflation, unemployment rates, GDP expansion, and government employment. Beyond tracking Virginia’s economic trends from 2024 to 2050, this advanced model places these trends within the broader national context, helping civic leaders compare the state's economic trajectory with the rest of the country.
Key Findings
- Virginia’s economy is expected to return to modest growth in 2026, but the recovery remains weak.
- Employment continues to decline even as output returns to growth. Employment weakness is more broadly distributed across sectors.
- The moderate rise in unemployment conceals a contraction in Virginia’s labor force.
- Housing permits have performed better than expected, but sales remain constrained.
Our goal is to support informed decision-making and long-term planning in a rapidly evolving environment. However, economic forecasts are inherently sensitive to changes in national and state-level policies, which can have unpredictable consequences on business conditions, public budgets, and labor markets. As such, projections presented here are subject to revision and will increase in accuracy as new data becomes available and recent trends are better understood.
Note: If your agency or IT administrator does not permit downloads from external sources, contact coopercenter@virginia.edu and we will email the forecast to you.