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Electricity Sales Forecast 2020-2050

This report covers recent trends in Virginia’s electricity demand and then forecasts how Virginia’s electricity demand will change through 2050. By far, the biggest driver of these changes will be Virginia’s increased use of data centers, which will increase electricity sales by 38% by 2035. Electricity demand will likely continue to grow even faster between 2035 and 2050 as the state accelerates its efforts to eliminate carbon emissions from the economy. Most of the short-run impact is due to the increase in data centers, but in the longer-run, electric vehicles will become an increasingly important contributor to growth in electricity sales. 

A graph showing the current and projected annual Dominion industrial sales in Virginia.

Most electricity use sectors in Virginia are not growing. Commercial and industrial demand for electricity in Virginia have both been falling for several years, and we can expect this to continue for some time. Residential sales are growing very slowly due to slower population growth and improved energy efficiency. The one growing sector of electricity demand in Virginia is sales to data centers. If energy sales to data centers maintain their current growth, electricity use would increase nearly 40% increase between 2020 and 2035, though this growth rate is likely unsustainable over the next 30 years. The increased use of EVs (light-duty cars and trucks) will add to these totals. Assuming that Virginia’s new Zero Emission Vehicle standard is in place, we can expect to add about 5,000 GWh per year to these totals in 2035.  

For the full report, download the file below.

A graph showing the annual current and projected electricity sales in Virginia from 2000-2050.

Electricity Sales Forecast 2020-2050_full report