National Population Trends

So far the 2020s have turned out very differently than any recent decade. The 2023 county population estimates released by the Census Bureau this spring showed that last year migration rose in small towns and rural counties, making them the top destination within the U.S. The 2023 age estimates, which the Census Bureau released over the summer, show that most of the growth that small towns and rural areas have experienced since 2020 is being driven by growth in their population of 25- to 44– year-olds.

Benchmarked on the 2020 Decennial Census Count data, our latest round of National Population Projections provides a look into the demographic future (total population, broken down by age and sex) for all 50 states and the District of Columbia over the next few decades of 2030, 2040, and 2050.

Whenever a prediction, forecast, or projection for the future is made, the natural question that arises is “how good is it?” After our office prepared population projections for the 50 states and D.C., we’ve been eagerly awaiting the 2020 Census results so we can answer this question for ourselves. The answer: the accuracy of our […]

For most of the last decade, the leading causes of death in the U.S. have remained the same, and the steady increase in mortality over the years has been largely due to an aging population. But the 2020 death statistics will be different. With over 300,000 deaths projected by end of Dec 2020, COVID-19 will […]

With the novel coronavirus causing a worldwide paradigm shift, I was genuinely tempted to jump into the data and analyze all possible permutations of what the potential impacts may be. Should I first plot the number of cases in Virginia with corresponding population densities on a map, or should I find causal connections between the […]

Political punditry and polls often form the basis for predicting election results, but rarely are they consistent or comprehensive. Given the importance of state-level voting, and the central role played by the Electoral College in the democratic process, projecting the number of eligible voters in each state may add value to understanding the November 2020 […]

In 1998, President Bill Clinton startled an audience of students by making this statement:“In a little more than 50 years there will be no majority race in the United States. No other nation in history has gone through demographic change of this magnitude in so short a time.” While few people in 1998 were aware […]

  Our recently released National Projections for all 50 states and the District of Columbia updated the total population, as well as population by age and sex, for 2020, 2030, and 2040, to reflect the effect of the latest demographic trends on future population. Over the projected time period, the country is expected to grow at a slower […]

During the last three decades, growth in the U.S. working age population, ages 20 to 65, has easily outpaced total U.S. population growth. But in coming decades further growth in the working-age population is on track to be considerably slower, increasing at less than half the rate of the rest of the population. As the […]

The United States is growing both in size and age, as shown in our recently released population projections for each decade till 2040. My last post was more about the growth in population across the states and identifying commonalities over the projected time horizon. But as we focus our lens on the future, no matter how we examine […]