Virginia Population Projections

Virginia Population Projections

The Virginia Employment Commission, responsible for periodic development of official population projections for Virginia and its localities, contracted with the Demographics Research Group to produce in 2012 detailed population projections for 2020, 2030, and 2040 for Virginia, its 134 localities and 22 Planning District Commissions (PDCs), as well as total population projections for large towns (population 5,000 or more in the 2010 census). Those projections are available on this page.

As a matter of professional interest, the Demographics Research Group also produced National Population Projections.

Projections by Locality, PDC, and Towns

The following Excel files contain aggregate population data for each locality, PDC, and large town. You may also download the detailed projections data, as well as shapefiles of aggregate projections for localities and PDCs in this one-click download of all files.


Total Population: excel | pdf
Age and Sex | Race | Ethnicity


Total Population
Age and Sex | Race | Ethnicity

Large Towns (population 5,000+ in 2010 Census)

Total Population

Projected Total Population

2020 | 2030 | 2040

For questions or comments regarding Virginia population projections, contact Qian Cai, Director of Demographics Research Group, Weldon Cooper Center: | 434.982.5581

A Note About Our Projections

The Code of Virginia mandates that the Virginia Employment Commission(VEC) prepare official statewide population projections several times each decade. In 2012, the VEC contracted with the Weldon Cooper Center to produce the first round of projections since the 2010 decennial census using the data from that, and previous, censuses. While these are the most recent available statewide projections for Virginia, they are now outdated, as they do not reflect demographic change since 2010 and its likely impact on future population.

Similar to weather forecasts, in order to improve utility, projections need to be updated regularly. The more current they are, the more likely they will paint a truer picture of population trends in the future.

Most states produce population projections every two or three years, and some produce them annually. Virginia prepared three rounds of projections in the last decade. Now, midway through this decade, it is time that these 2012 projections be updated. The Cooper Center is pursuing funding in the next biennial budget for a fresh round of projections to be developed and released by mid-year 2017.