New Poll, Virginians Choose Warner Over Allen for President in '08

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For Release:     January 18, 2006

Contact:           Matt Smyth (434-243-8466 or smyth@virginia.edu) 

New Poll, Virginians Choose Warner Over Allen for President in '08

CHARLOTTESVILLE – If the 2008 election for President of the United States were held today, former Virginia Governor Mark Warner would defeat US Senator George Allen in the Old Dominion by a heavy margin, according to a recent survey of Virginians conducted by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. The post-election survey showed support for Warner well ahead of Allen by a margin of 49 percent to 32 percent with 20 percent undecided or uncertain.* Warner leads within every demographic group except Republicans. See chart below for demographic subgroups. 

"For now, in the state that knows them both best, Warner is the undisputed king of the hill. Much can change before 2008, of course, including the likelihood that only one of them will probably be lucky enough to make the November ballot (if that)," said Larry Sabato, Director of the UVA Center for Politics. "Allen would almost certainly beat any other Democrat but Warner in Virginia. On the other hand, this poll suggests that Warner could be the first Democrat since LBJ who can turn Virginia ‘blue’ in a Presidential election." 

 

Allen

Warner

Undecided/DK

 

GENDER:

Male

37

46

17

Female

27

51

22

 

RACE:

African American

9

69

22

White

36

45

19

Asian

20

47

33

Hispanic

17

70

13

 

PARTY  ID:

Republican

70

12

18

Democrat

2

88

11

Independent

17

53

30

 

AGE:

18-24

 

22

53

25

25+

34

48

19

Survey results released last week show Warner has become one of Virginia’s most popular Governors in the polling era, with 75 percent job approval in the Center for Politics survey, compared to 54 percent for Allen. Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner left office on Saturday, having elected fellow Democrat Tim Kaine as his successor over George Allen’s protégé, Jerry Kilgore (R).

The Center for Politics Post-Election Survey was commissioned by the UVA Center for Politics and conducted in partnership with the UVA Center for Survey Research. Interviews with 1,181 randomly selected Virginians (including an oversample of young people 18-24 years old) were conducted by telephone over the three weeks following the November 2005 election. The data have been weighted to adjust for gender and age disparities. The survey has an overall margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

The question wording for this portion of the poll was: “In the 2008 presidential race, if George Allen gets the Republican nomination and Mark Warner gets the Democratic nomination, for which Virginian would you vote?”

* Due to rounding, totals may not equal 100%.